Estimating is hard

Estimating is hard.

We saw that earlier this summer, when Troop 3 got together at Mill Race and tried to guess what it looks like when you are six feet apart. We guessed, then we measured. Some people got it, others didn’t … and estimating got harder the further apart we were.

In September, the Philmont crew went on a backpacking trek in Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area. Based on our maps, we expected it to be about 10 miles from Millbrook-Blairstown Road to Brink Road Shelter. Two leaders kept track of the mileage with their Apple Watches and the answer turned out to be more like 12 miles. Except, the Apple Watches aren’t perfect; if GPS isn’t available, they have to guess how far you’ve gone based on your stride.

All along the way, we tried to estimate how long it would take us to our next destination. Rattlesnake Mountain. Bird Mountain. The shelter. We were consistently wrong, and not because of the distance (or just because of the distance).

We stopped for snacks.
We stopped to fix packs.
We stopped to tie shoe laces.
We stopped to look at awesome views.
We stopped to look at salamanders.

All of it took time, and all of it messed with our estimates. On the way back, walking the same trail, our estimates were better. Sometimes.

We estimated how long it would take to get to Rattlesnake Mountain … but then we weren’t sure if we were on top of Rattlesnake Mountain or not. We estimated how long it would take to get to Dry Lake. And then were pleasantly surprised to find it was before, not after the big climb we knew was coming.

Our estimates got better as the day went on … because we looked at our phones and figured out when we took pictures of certain landmarks the day before (like the scenic overlook near the start of our trip. The power lines. The beaver lodges).

Based on our experience, we nailed our final estimate of the day … we said we would come off the trail at 4 p.m., and we reached our cars at 3:50.

So what’s the lesson? When making estimates, give yourself some wiggle room. Remember that things may take more (or less) time than you give them. Things may be closer (or further) than you expected.

Be prepared for both options.

And don’t be hard on yourself when you guess wrong. As the scouts said many times during the trip … estimating is hard.

Ken Newquist is the scoutmaster of BSA Troop 3 in Easton, Pa.